U.S. midterm elections are one month away, and Bitcoin’s historical performance after previous midterms shows crashes of 72%, 65%, 52%, and 27% following the 2010, 2014, 2018, and 2022 elections respectively. Despite record whale accumulation with 41,025 BTC purchased over ten days and bullish positioning above $90k in the options market, liquidity remains constrained and spot demand is weak. The tokenized real-world assets sector has reached $38 billion, including $16 billion in tokenized U.S. Treasuries, but this liquidity is insufficient to offset rising speculative activity. A retest of the $73k level cannot be ruled out if a liquidity unwind triggers cascading selloffs across futures and options markets.
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