Iran and Oman have been negotiating since mid-August 2026 the creation of a temporary maritime corridor through the Strait of Hormuz, through which approximately 20% of global oil and LNG transit. Tehran subordinates any reopening to the lifting of the US naval blockade, the removal of sanctions, and the cessation of military operations in the region, including in Lebanon and Gaza. Pakistan and Qatar have joined Oman as mediators, with formal talks on a permanent arrangement expected within 30 to 60 days. If discussions fail, the strait remains closed and energy markets will continue pricing in a scenario where 20% of global oil supply lacks a clear path to market.
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