Over all four-year holding periods, Bitcoin has outperformed the S&P 500, even for investors who entered near a market peak, according to an analysis by Willy Woo published on October 2. BTC shows a four-year annualized return of 42%, compared to 19% for the US equity index, meaning $1,000 grows to approximately $4,066. This performance even exceeds that of Renaissance Technologies’ Medallion Fund, one of the world’s top-performing hedge funds with 39% annual returns. However, BTC’s returns have been eroding over time, falling to 8% in March 2025, and declining from one halving cycle to the next. Bitcoin has also regained the upper hand against Wall Street in recent months, outperforming the S&P 500 in more than 50% of trading sessions, up from just 20% in June.
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