Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, believes an AI-related debt crisis could first cause Bitcoin to fall alongside other risk assets, before a monetary intervention by the Federal Reserve or the U.S. Treasury brings liquidity back to these markets. Morgan Stanley estimated as early as 2025 that the global financing gap for AI infrastructure could reach nearly $1.5 trillion by 2028, and several companies like Oracle, Meta and TeraWulf are turning to massive debt issuances to fund their data centers. Hayes draws a parallel with March 2020, when Bitcoin sharply declined before rebounding thanks to the Fed’s asset purchases, but he acknowledges that this scenario remains conditional and does not constitute a established forecast. Notably, Arthur Hayes holds interests in projects combining AI and blockchain, an element to consider when interpreting his analyses, which are generally very bullish on Bitcoin.
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