Traders on the Kalshi platform now price an 85% probability that the Federal Reserve will hold rates at its October 2026 meeting. This shift follows a particularly weak jobs report showing the US economy added just 29,000 nonfarm payroll jobs in September, with the unemployment rate at 4.2%. Prior to this release, hold odds stood at around 65% after the PCE inflation data published on September 30, 2026. The Federal Open Market Committee will meet on October 27 and 28, 2026, with the decision expected between 2:00 PM and 2:30 PM Eastern Time.
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