VanEck recorded eight active capitulation signals out of twelve on Aug. 12, pointing to prolonged market stress. However, the firm’s historical data shows that when eight to 12 signals were simultaneously active, Bitcoin underperformed its baseline over 90 days (12.8% vs. 15.2%) and 180 days (32.0% vs. 36.3%). The Aug. 19 rebound was driven by a short squeeze with $2.23 billion in US spot Bitcoin ETF creations over seven days, yet supply held for more than one year fell by 356,534 BTC in 30 days, leaving uncertainty about the sustainability of long-term accumulation. Bitcoin was up 2.89% over the past 24 hours.
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