A Bitquery study covering 121 stocks and 17 weekends evaluated 791 market openings using stock-token movements on Sunday before 6 p.m., when equity-index futures reopened. Among 533 openings that moved at least 0.5% from Friday, tokens correctly indicated the direction in 286 cases, or 54%, compared with 291 successful calls, or 55%, from always predicting a rise. Balanced accuracy reached 53%, with a 95% interval of 44% to 62%, while median error across all 791 observations was 1.2%, versus 0.9% using Friday’s closing price. A sensitivity test achieved 59% balanced accuracy across 220 openings, but simultaneously changed the price-reading time, volume threshold and movement filter. Nasdaq also expects to move to 23-hour, five-day trading, subject to conditions including clearing infrastructure and regulatory approval of market-data proposals.
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