The US Treasury has revised its net marketable borrowing estimate for Q3 2026 to $739 billion, a $68 billion increase from its May forecast, driven by lower-than-expected anticipated cash flows. For the second half of 2026, total combined borrowing needs are projected at $1.367 trillion, with $628 billion targeted for the October-December quarter. The Treasury ended Q2 2026 with a cash balance of $919 billion after borrowing only $190 billion during the period. Stablecoins like USDT and USDC hold substantial reserves in short-term US Treasuries, creating a feedback loop between government borrowing and crypto market liquidity. The maturity mix announced on August 5 will be critical, as a tilt toward longer-dated securities would pressure yields on 10-year and 30-year bonds, while shorter-term bill issuance would be more benign for risk assets.
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