U.S. gasoline prices have surged nearly 30% over the past year, reaching approximately $4.10 per gallon in early August. Former President Donald Trump stated that these higher prices are justified amid the ongoing conflict with Iran, highlighting the influence of geopolitical tensions on the energy market. Tensions in the Middle East and their impact on critical supply routes like the Strait of Hormuz have generated significant volatility in Brent and WTI crude oil benchmarks. Prediction markets now assign a 12.5% probability to crude oil reaching a new all-time high by December 31, up from 10% a week ago. These developments carry significant implications for both the energy sector and consumers, as observers closely monitor statements from OPEC and the IEA.
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