Iran has threatened to escalate tensions in the Strait of Hormuz and beyond if the United States does not fully implement a provisional peace deal within weeks, according to a senior Iranian official speaking to Reuters. The official indicated that Tehran would conduct a timely and precise military attack if diplomatic efforts fail, aiming to break the U.S. naval blockade on Iranian shipping. Prediction markets are reflecting heightened concerns, with the likelihood of the U.S. ending the Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026, dropping sharply from 42% to 14.5% over the past week. The December 31, 2026 market remains at 77%, suggesting that a longer resolution timeline is considered more likely.
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