The United States has expressed confidence in achieving a favorable outcome from the ongoing trilateral talks on the Ukraine war, involving Kyiv, Moscow, and Washington. Market probabilities for a ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026 currently stand at 23.5%, down from 34% just twenty-four hours ago. For a ceasefire by April 1, 2027, the probability is higher at 43.5%. These movements reflect cautious market optimism amid ongoing diplomatic developments.
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