Commodity Futures Trading Commission data show that speculators increased their net short positions in five-year Treasury futures by 246,314 contracts for the week ending November 3, 2026. The increase points to expectations of higher yields, even though recent gains in Treasury bond prices have moved positioning away from the extreme short levels recorded in October. Prediction markets now assign lower odds to the five-year Treasury yield falling below 4.10% before 2027. Market participants will closely watch Federal Reserve communications, inflation and employment data, and indications from the Federal Open Market Committee about potential rate cuts or hikes.
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