On Nasdaq, SkyAI announced on October 11, 2026 a cash tender offer of up to $201 million for its shares and pre-funded warrants. The deal — scheduled to run for 10 business days from October 15 — includes an unusual condition: SOL must stay above $100 throughout the entire offer period, while the token trades just 7.6 % above that threshold.
🔑 Key takeaways
- SkyAI offers up to $201 million at $3 per share (65 % premium over the October 9 close).
- Critical condition: SOL > $100 throughout the entire offer period.
- The company sold ~1 million SOL (half its treasury) to raise ~$107 million.
- Nearly 1.25 million SOL (~$138M) have been routed to exchanges in five days.
- SKYA stock jumped 42.86 % on October 12; management rejected the latest Forward Industries proposal.
A $201M offer backed by a Solana treasury
SkyAI, formerly known as Sharps Technology, announced its intention to launch a tender offer to purchase up to 95 % of each class of its outstanding securities. The offer price of $3.00 per share or pre-funded warrant represents a 65 % premium over the October 9, 2026 closing price and more than 100 % over the 60-day volume-weighted average price.
The offer covers a maximum of 46.37 million common shares and roughly 20.72 million pre-funded warrants, to be settled in cash, cryptocurrency, and through strategic advisors. The maximum theoretical size reaches ~$201 million, though the company stated the deal carries no financing condition — current cash plus the market value of its digital assets already exceeds the maximum purchase price.
To fund the operation, SkyAI sold approximately 1 million SOL tokens — half of its Solana holdings — generating roughly $107 million in proceeds. The company still retains about 1 million SOL and indicated it may continue selling depending on market conditions. Combined with available cash, the value of remaining digital assets exceeds 80 % of the required liquidity for the offer.
The $100 SOL condition: anatomy of a critical threshold
Among the offer’s multiple conditions, one clause stands out: SOL’s closing price must remain above $100 throughout the entire 10-business-day offer period. SkyAI reserves the right to waive this condition, along with any other, per the official press release. Any such waiver remains discretionary and is not governed by any automatic trigger.
The technical picture makes this threshold more fragile than it first appears. The token traded at $108-$109 at the time of the announcement, just 7.6 % above the contractual level. Its 200-day moving average, a long-term trend indicator, sits at $98.37 — within 2 % of the required threshold. Market dynamics therefore warrant close monitoring, especially as current technical ratios place the asset in a structurally fragile zone.
| Technical indicator | Level | Gap vs $100 |
|---|---|---|
| Spot price (Oct 10) | $108-$109 | +7.6 % to +8.7 % |
| 200-day moving average | $98.37 | -1.63 % |
| 52-week low | $62.18 | -37.82 % |
| 52-week high | $208.61 | +108.61 % |
| Recent low (Sept 16) | $96.87 | -3.13 % |
These figures remind investors that SOL already broke below the $100 mark in mid-September — though it has held above since for 27 consecutive sessions. The 12-month range ($62.18 to $208.61) confirms the asset behaves far from a defensive holding and that its inherent volatility could reactivate this risk at any moment.
Selling pressure: 1.25M SOL converge on exchanges
On-chain data observed over recent days paints a worrying signal. According to analyst Ember, roughly 468,000 SOL worth $51.1 million moved in just 24 hours on October 10, including 218,000 to centralized exchanges and 250,000 to custodian BitGo.
Analytics firm Lookonchain counted 568,000 SOL — about $63.87 million — transferred to exchanges over three days. On October 12, an additional 211,623 SOL landed on Coinbase Prime, bringing the cumulative total to approximately 1.25 million SOL — nearly $138 million — routed to trading venues over five days.
“The transfer of 1.25 million SOL to exchanges in five days is the prerequisite step for any disposal and signals an intensification of potential supply on the spot market.”
Ember, on-chain analyst
These flows remain preliminary: a transfer to an exchange does not automatically equal a sale. Yet they constitute the prerequisite step for any disposal and signal an intensification of potential supply. For a threshold already on edge, this rising selling pressure is a worsening factor worth tracking daily until the offer closes.
The Forward Industries rejection and the market rally
SkyAI’s board also announced it rejected the latest non-binding proposal from Forward Industries, which offered 0.306 FWDI share per SKYA share. The special committee of independent directors deemed the proposal undervalued and contrary to shareholders’ best interests after a thorough review.
Forward Industries is no minor player: the firm describes itself as the largest Solana treasury among public companies, with 8.5 million SOL held at the end of September. Its withdrawal after this rebuff leaves SkyAI to navigate its buyback path alone, without an obvious short-term strategic alternative. The parallel between the two firms reinforces the sense that consolidation in the Solana treasury space remains embryonic.
Meanwhile, SKYA stock surged 42.86 % on October 12, the first trading day after the offer announcement. The move reflects investor enthusiasm for the 65 % premium and the liquidity option proposed. SkyAI suspended its regular buyback program to focus on the new offer and will not purchase shares outside it for at least ten business days after expiration.
Contractual discipline and legal risks
Beyond the SOL condition, the offer includes several additional safeguards: no court decision or order blocking the transaction, no general trading suspension, and assurance that the offer will not trigger a Nasdaq delisting or removal under the Securities Exchange Act of 1934. Any shareholder whose stake would exceed 15 % of outstanding shares solely as a result of SkyAI’s purchases under the offer will not trigger the company’s shareholder rights plan.
Conclusion: a binary scenario for SkyAI
The financial architecture of this offer creates an unusual situation in public markets: the fate of a $201 million securities transaction now hinges directly on a technical level on a crypto asset. If SOL holds above $100 over ten business sessions, the offer will proceed normally and SkyAI will complete its repurchases as planned, restoring a lighter capital structure.
Conversely, a breach of the threshold — even temporary — would put SkyAI in a strategic dilemma. The company could waive the condition and push forward, but this could undermine market confidence in the issuer’s contractual discipline. Otherwise, the deal would collapse and SkyAI would retain its full SOL and cash holdings. The most likely near-term scenario is SOL stability in the $100-$110 range, supported by SkyAI’s own structural buying and by broader crypto market dynamics. For SKYA shareholders and SOL holders alike, the next ten days will prove decisive.
Sources
- CryptoSlate — SkyAI risks SEC offer failure if SOL falls under $100
- CryptoTicker — Solana price and SkyAI buyback $100 condition
- AltcoinBuzz — SOL slides below $110 as SkyAI sells half its Solana treasury
- WBOC — SkyAI announces cash tender offer
- StockTitan — SkyAI tender offer announcement
This article is for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice. Do your own research (DYOR) before making any decision.
