Saudi-backed forces in Yemen have launched a military campaign aimed at defeating the Houthi militia, which controls significant portions of the country. This offensive follows Houthi territorial gains along the Red Sea coast, including control over Mokha and strategic areas near the Bab el-Mandeb strait. The escalation comes after a period of relative calm following the 2022 UN-brokered ceasefire. Market indicators reflect a 12.5% probability of Houthi forces advancing towards Aden by October 31. The coming weeks will be crucial in determining whether the current campaign leads to significant territorial changes or a new stalemate.
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