According to data scientist Thomas Miller’s model, Republicans have a 17.1% chance of retaining control of the U.S. Senate, down from 34.8% in September. Democrats need a net gain of four seats to flip the upper chamber, a scenario that recent polling increasingly suggests is plausible. Democratic candidates are leading in key states such as Michigan and Ohio, while market pricing reflects reduced expectations for a Republican victory. The outcomes of crucial Senate races in Texas and Ohio, along with any late polling or endorsements, could shift the perceived probabilities as the election approaches.
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