SpaceX and Tesla have formed special committees to evaluate a potential merger, while Elon Musk has recused himself from the discussions. Any such transaction would require approval from the boards, shareholders, and regulatory authorities. The odds of a merger announcement by December 31, 2026, have fallen from 20% to 18.5%, while the probability of an announcement by January 1, 2028, stands at 66.5%. Official statements, regulatory filings, and reactions from the boards and shareholders could change this assessment.
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