Qatar announced that direct talks are ongoing with Iran regarding the pilots issue, reducing the urgency of a potential Iranian airspace closure. Qatar labeled Iran’s request for ICRC involvement as a media maneuver. Prediction markets reflect this de-escalation: the probability of a full Iranian airspace closure by August 31 dropped from 10% to 6.5%. However, longer-term scenarios remain under scrutiny, with 34% odds for a closure by December 31, reflecting persistent geopolitical uncertainties in the region.
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