Russian President Vladimir Putin has ruled out negotiations with those he calls «terrorists» in response to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s statements regarding civil aviation. This firm stance represents a major impediment to diplomatic progress and ceasefire prospects. Markets have interpreted the statement as a significant setback for the likelihood of a ceasefire agreement. The implied probability of a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026 has dropped to 18.5%, down from higher levels the previous week, signaling growing investor pessimism about a diplomatic resolution to the conflict.
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