Persian Gulf oil exporters have recovered to nearly prewar levels, with flows estimated at 98% by JPMorgan, or roughly 19 million barrels per day according to Goldman Sachs. About 40% of crude now uses pipeline routes bypassing the Strait of Hormuz, up from 17% before the conflict, as Saudi Arabia and the UAE rely more on overland infrastructure. The U.S. naval blockade has reduced Iranian oil exports to zero, but analysts warn Tehran could retaliate with a scorched earth campaign targeting regional production facilities. Attacks on commercial ships are rising and insurance costs remain elevated, keeping a risk premium in the market. Washington is deploying the USS Theodore Roosevelt aircraft carrier and the USS Makin Island Amphibious Ready Group to the region, reinforcing its military presence as Iran’s economy crumbles.
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