A study of more than 60,000 measured Polymarket reactions to breaking news between April 29 and June 25, 2026 reveals five recurring trajectories. Three shapes hold or extend the move: snap-and-hold (29.1%), slow-grind (25.3%), and accelerating (16.2%), totaling 70.6% of moves. Two shapes round-trip: spike-and-fade (21.7%) and reversal (7.7%), totaling 29.4%, nearly one in three. News category does not predict shape: every category produces all five shapes in similar proportions, and the median move retains only 0.750 of its peak by hour four.
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