Middle powers such as Canada, Australia, and Japan are actively seeking new alliances amid growing concerns about U.S. influence and President Trump’s unpredictability on the international stage. This strategic realignment is occurring within the context of the ongoing U.S.-China rivalry, prompting these countries to recalibrate their diplomatic and economic ties. The geopolitical shifts could significantly impact U.S.-Iran negotiations for a deal in 2026, particularly regarding the inclusion of Reconstruction Funding. Market pricing suggests a decrease in the likelihood of a comprehensive agreement, reflecting reduced confidence in the stability of U.S.-Iran relations.
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