Ledger CTO Charles Guillemet has flagged two theoretical advances that could affect the long-term security of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. A study by Ruhr University Bochum and the Max Planck Institute for Security and Privacy proposes a subexponential algorithm for solving the elliptic-curve discrete logarithm problem, but it depends on an OpenAI claim that remains unverified and does not threaten current curves such as secp256k1. In addition, the ECDSA.fail project reportedly reduced the estimated cost of quantum attacks against elliptic-curve signatures by about 70%. Alice & Bob estimates that a fault-tolerant quantum computer could theoretically break secp256k1 in one hour with fewer than 30,000 physical qubits, although this poses no immediate risk.
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