President Donald Trump signed an executive order on October 5, 2026 temporarily opening tax-exempt dyed diesel to highway use and deferring federal excise taxes on the fuel through the end of the year. US retail on-highway diesel had peaked at approximately $6.53 per gallon in September due to international supply disruptions from the Iran conflict and attacks on Russian refineries. Prediction market traders on Kalshi now expect the national average diesel price to fall to $6.20 per gallon or lower by November 3, 2026, which is Election Day. The tax deferral could save users over $100 per refill, a figure that matters most for long-haul trucks and farm equipment with large tanks. Markets assign an 11-17% probability to a complete export ban on diesel products by late October or Election Day.
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