Iran is expected to bolster its use of cryptocurrencies and dollar-backed stablecoins to facilitate the sale of its sanctioned oil and the purchase of dual-use goods. The United States has recently intensified its sanctions enforcement, including a civil forfeiture case involving 61 million dollars in stablecoins tied to alleged black-market Iranian crude sales. This strategy underscores the growing reliance on digital assets to circumvent traditional banking channels. On the WTI crude oil market, probabilities of reaching high price thresholds remain low, with only 1% to 4% chances of hitting 130 to 150 dollars per barrel, while a 74% probability is assessed for a decline toward 85 dollars.
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