Fund outflows and rising energy costs are expected to keep pressure on India’s rupee despite the Reserve Bank of India’s measures to slow depreciation. The currency has recently recovered from 96.79 to 95 rupees per dollar thanks to RBI interventions, but analysts forecast further weakening: S&P Global Market Intelligence expects 97 rupees by end-2026 and 98 rupees by mid-2027, while Mizuho Securities projects 98 rupees by late 2026. The FCNR-B program boosted foreign exchange reserves by $105 billion, but subsequent interventions have reduced reserves by $51 billion, and forward commitments stand at $200 billion, leaving the rupee vulnerable to depreciation toward the 100-per-dollar mark.
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