MSCI has finalized an index methodology that could exclude Strategy, Metaplanet and other crypto treasury companies from its global equity indexes. A first list will be published on November 11, 2026, with exclusions potentially effective December 1. Here is a look at the framework, the figures in circulation and the points to watch.
🔑 Key Takeaways
- A general eligibility rule replaces earlier restrictions aimed at companies whose digital assets make up at least 50% of total balance sheet assets.
- A company becomes ineligible after failing four of five financial ratio tests, following a central screen on the substance of its operating assets.
- A current constituent can only be removed if it fails the test in each of its two most recent filed annual fiscal years.
- JPMorgan’s $2.8 billion estimate reflects mechanical selling of shares linked to index tracking, not price forecasts.
- Key date: list published November 11, 2026, with a potential effective date of December 1.
A General Rule Rather Than a Targeted Tool
After struggling to pin down precisely which ‘bitcoin treasury companies’ to target, MSCI opted for a broader approach. The methodology, finalized in mid-October, covers the eligibility of so-called ‘non-operating’ companies: businesses whose main activity is holding investments rather than conducting an industrial or commercial business.
The principle is simple. Companies must first pass a ‘central screen’ on the substance of their operating assets. Those that fail are then subject to five financial ratio tests, and a company that fails four of the five becomes ineligible. The rule replaces provisional restrictions that targeted companies whose digital assets represented at least 50% of total balance sheet assets.
Buffers to Limit Index Turnover
MSCI has added ‘buffers’ designed to reduce index turnover: the ratio thresholds and the timing of entries and exits include tolerance margins. Most importantly, a current constituent can only be removed if it fails the test in each of its two most recent filed annual fiscal years. That double safeguard is currently the only protection for Strategy and Metaplanet.
Who Is in the Crosshairs
A simulation published by MSCI in May 2026, based on fiscal-year data, had already identified the most exposed companies.
| Company | Profile | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Strategy | Largest public bitcoin holder in the world | May 2026 simulation |
| Metaplanet | Japanese bitcoin treasury company | May 2026 simulation |
| Yellow Cake | Uranium company listed in the UK | May 2026 simulation |
| SharpLink | Ether treasury holder | Possible watchlist inclusion |
The case of Yellow Cake sits at the heart of the debate. The company has no link to crypto assets, yet it falls under the same criteria as Strategy. The company presents this as an argument: the rule would target the legal structure of businesses, not crypto assets. A bitcoin treasury company is nonetheless legally a company, with customers, employees and accounting obligations, not an investment fund.
Strategy rejects that reading. In a letter sent to MSCI in September 2026, the company argued that the proposal ‘would have no significant impact on Strategy’s business but would severely damage MSCI’s reputation as a reliable and neutral index provider’. Executive Chairman Michael Saylor and CEO Phong Le described the approach as ‘discriminatory’ toward crypto treasury companies.
“Digital assets are assets. Index providers should measure markets, not decide which assets companies are allowed to own.”
Strategy, post on X, mid-September 2026
What Is at Stake: $2.8 Billion
According to Strategy’s disclosures, funds tracking MSCI indexes hold roughly 13 million MSTR shares, or close to 3.1% of shares outstanding. The company says this volume is less than one average day of trading.
| Indicator | Figure | Nature |
|---|---|---|
| MSTR shares held by MSCI-tracking funds | About 13 million | Strategy disclosures |
| Share of outstanding capital | Close to 3.1% | Strategy disclosures |
| Mechanical sales if excluded | About $2.8 billion | JPMorgan estimate, earlier proposal |
| Bitcoin held by Strategy | Not affected | The measure concerns shares |
JPMorgan estimates that an exclusion of Strategy would trigger about $2.8 billion of forced MSTR sales by index-tracking funds and passive vehicles. This is not a price target. The figure measures a mechanical liquidation volume tied to index replication obligations, independent of any fundamental analysis. It was calculated under an earlier proposal and therefore does not estimate the framework that was ultimately adopted.
An often-overlooked point: these sales would concern shares, not the bitcoin held by the company. An index exclusion would not oblige funds to liquidate Strategy’s treasury. Broader figures, based on the assumption that other index providers follow similar rules, are also circulating in the market. They remain scenarios and are not used in this analysis.
A Precedent That Repeats Itself
In January 2026, MSCI had already backed off. The provider declined to exclude digital asset treasury companies from its February index review, citing the need for ‘additional research and consultation’. Strategy’s shares had then risen by 6% to 7%.
The current framework is the follow-up MSCI had flagged. The consultation opened on August 3, 2026, with participant feedback due by September 30. MSTR gained 5.62% on Thursday to close at $151.29, as MSCI’s announcement came after the US market close.
This precedent fits into an older debate. Basel risk weights, which reached 1,250% for certain exposures, had already weighed on bitcoin within the banking framework. Some observers see the same logic in MSCI’s new framework: when a targeted instrument fails, a broader tool is built and presented as prudent methodology.
Outlook and Scenarios
The key date remains November 11, 2026, when the list for the November index review will be published, with possible exclusions effective December 1. Investors will need to watch whether Strategy or Metaplanet fails the five-ratio test in a second consecutive period, and whether other providers such as S&P Dow Jones Indices or FTSE Russell adopt parallel frameworks.
Three scenarios stand out. If neither company appears on the list, MSCI’s campaign will have produced no exclusions, leaving a methodology that applies indiscriminately to uranium stocks and bitcoin treasury companies, a notable outcome after a year of consultations. A limited exclusion would generate the mechanical flows described above, without affecting the bitcoin held by the companies. A coordinated move by several index providers would, by contrast, be the only scenario likely to weigh durably on the value of crypto treasury stocks.
Sources
- MSCI, eligibility methodology for non-operating companies, finalized in mid-October 2026
- MSCI, exposure simulation published in May 2026
- MSCI, consultation opened August 3, 2026, feedback due September 30, 2026
- Strategy, letter to MSCI, September 2026, and post on X, mid-September 2026
- Strategy, disclosures on shares held by index-tracking funds
- JPMorgan, estimate of mechanical sales linked to a Strategy exclusion (earlier proposal)
This article is published for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice in any way. Do your own research (DYOR) before making any decision.
