Rioting has spread across France, with looting in Paris, attacks on city halls in Marseille and Limoges, and thousands of arrests. Wall Street is trying to price a scenario in which France fails to contain the situation and yields to protesters’ demands for more spending, worsening its national debt. Macquarie analysts forecast a possible dissolution of the National Assembly, a credit rating downgrade in November, spreading violence, and a spike in French bond yields that could trigger contagion into other asset classes. Oxford Economics estimates that France and Italy would fall into moderate recession in case of contagion, while the eurozone would avoid recession.
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