Hollywood studios and production companies are tightening restrictions on employees betting with confidential information, including casting decisions, release dates, and financial results. A platform temporarily suspended its market on the next Bond after a wave of bets propelled Callum Turner ahead of Jack Lowden. On November 6, Kalshi showed an implied probability of 62% for Turner, compared with 18% for Josh O’Connor and 14% for Lowden. Amazon MGM Studios has not yet announced who will play the next 007, and studios have introduced reporting mechanisms. The case highlights the difficulty of detecting insider trading on prediction markets, where blockchain provides transaction records without always identifying the traders behind wallet addresses.
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