Despite recent declines and extraordinary volatility, the U.S. stock market has followed a strong historical pattern of post-midterm strength. As of Aug. 20, the S&P 500 was up 11.6% year to date on a price-only basis, compared with an average loss of 1.3% at the equivalent point of midterm election years from 1954 through 2022. This performance significantly above the historical average suggests that investor panic earlier this week may have been overblown.
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