A Galaxy Research study of 2.9 million human-paced accounts on Polymarket found that more than 69% of them ended below break-even, with aggregate losses of $338.9 million. The researchers excluded 125,429 accounts likely operated by bots, which represented only 4.1% of wallets but accounted for 80.8% of all orders. The median loss per retail account was about $3, and 15.2% of users did not trade again within 30 days after a loss, compared to 6.1% after a win. About 44% of traders specialize in a single topic, but specialists are slightly less profitable than generalists, at 28% versus 30.4%; technology and science specialists posted the highest profitability rate at 41.2%. Meanwhile, Polymarket faces legal challenges in the United States, notably in New York and Baltimore for unlicensed gambling, while South Korean police have opened investigations into 26 users over approximately $12.7 million in bets.
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