Polling firm Wedgewood admitted on October 20 that it fabricated most of its election surveys, even though its data was carried by VoteHub, the source used for some Kalshi contracts. According to Kalshi’s September 12, 2025 regulatory filing, revisions made to the underlying data after expiration are not accounted for when determining settlement value, except for any specific treatment in the applicable rulebook. A contract requiring an 8% average would therefore remain settled as Yes if the reading were later corrected to 7.8%, even if the original figure was fabricated. Wedgewood’s identified fabricated surveys covered state races, while the example contract tracks a national average, so the public record does not show that a Kalshi payout was based on fraudulent polling data. Kalshi has yet to specify which rulebook governs the October series, whether any contract has settled on a later-corrected figure or whether payouts can be reopened after fraud is confirmed.
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