Diesel prices have hit record highs due to conflicts in Ukraine and Iran, which have caused significant disruptions in refinery operations. This situation has resulted in a global supply crunch, pushing diesel prices to unprecedented levels. Ultra-low-sulfur diesel (ULSD), a key benchmark, recently set a new post-war high, with severe refining capacity constraints reflected in the diesel crack spread. Crude oil markets show low immediate expectations for an all-time high by September 30 (1.4% YES) but increased potential by December 31 (9.5% YES), indicating that market participants see more upside potential in the longer term. Geopolitical tensions and supply disruptions remain key drivers influencing the outlook for crude oil prices.
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