CFTC data shows that leveraged funds accumulated net short positions in yen futures reaching approximately 138,000 contracts as of June 30, 2026, the highest level since 2007. The yen then strengthened sharply, forcing market participants to unwind their positions at a rapid pace. By August 4, 2026, net short contracts had declined by more than 50% to approximately 63,600 contracts. JPMorgan analysts estimate that remaining bearish positions represent over $100 billion in notional value, and that any drop in USD/JPY below the 155 level could trigger massive short covering.
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