Benjamin Cowen, founder of Into The Cryptoverse, estimates a 65% probability that Bitcoin’s cycle low has not yet been reached. He points to the realized price near $53,000 as the level bears must still test before confirming a bottom. Bitcoin was trading around $78,300 at publication time, down 1.7% over 24 hours, after a roughly 40% rally from its summer low. Cowen notes that similar rebounds occurred in 2018 and 2022, followed by new declines in the fourth quarter. He expects headwinds for Bitcoin over the next month and a half, but believes that clearing October without a new low would shift the odds in favor of the bulls.
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