Washington has authorized Nvidia to ship its H200 AI chips to approved Chinese customers in exchange for 25% of the revenue flowing to the US government. Implementation is already raising questions: an approved buyer, New Matrix, appears to exist mostly on paper, and the deal is contested in Washington as well as in Beijing.
🔑 Key takeaways
- On December 8, 2025, Donald Trump announced that the H200 could be exported to approved Chinese customers, with 25% of revenue going to Washington.
- Blackwell and Rubin remain excluded, and every shipment still requires a Commerce Department license.
- According to The New York Times, New Matrix, an approved buyer, does not appear in any verifiable registry at the address it gave.
- Congress remains divided: Elizabeth Warren is calling for hearings, while Republicans back the Safe Chips Act.
From Blanket Ban to Conditional Opening
In April 2025, the Trump administration halted sales of advanced chips to China on national security grounds. In August, Nvidia and AMD won permission to resume sales of the H20 and MI308 by sharing 15% of their Chinese revenue with the government. Trump says he initially wanted 20%, before CEO Jensen Huang negotiated the rate down to 15%.
“So we negotiated a little deal. It’s basically selling an old chip.”
Donald Trump, President of the United States
The two rates must be read separately. The 15% share applied to the H20 and MI308 in summer 2025, while the 25% share applies to the H200 announced on December 8. The table below summarizes the sequence.
| Date | Measure | Revenue share |
|---|---|---|
| April 2025 | Advanced chip sales halted | None |
| August 2025 | H20 and MI308 allowed | 15% |
| December 8, 2025 | H200 allowed for approved customers | 25% |
The H200 is an AI chip from a generation older than Blackwell. Neither Blackwell nor Rubin, whose release is near, is covered by the announcement. Every shipment remains subject to a license from the Commerce Department, which is still finalizing the terms. Intel, AMD and other American companies would reportedly receive the same access.
Trump said he informed Chinese President Xi Jinping, who he claimed had “responded positively”. No independent source confirms this. On the Chinese side, a foreign ministry spokesperson described cooperation between the world’s two largest economies as essential and mutually beneficial, without saying whether Beijing would permit imports. After the H20 easing, however, the Chinese government had essentially signaled that it did not want those chips. The risk of a refusal therefore remains fully open.
New Matrix and the Limits of Export Controls
The most troubling episode concerns buyer verification. According to an investigation by The New York Times, relayed by The Verge, New Matrix is on the list of companies approved to hold H200 chips. Yet the company, founded 17 months earlier, is nearly unknown online. At the address it provided, the industrial park directory does not list it, and a receptionist and a property management official both said they had no records in its name.
The newspaper describes the premises as “a hollow gray shell, with wires hanging from the ceiling where the lights should be”. New Matrix’s owners also have ties to a Chinese private equity fund that has been on the US blacklist since 2024. The report does not document any actual chip delivery to the company, but it exposes serious gaps in access control and, according to the paper, fits a broader pattern of approving firms linked to entities under national security restrictions.
Nvidia, Washington and the Bipartisan Backlash
Nvidia had lobbied the White House for several months before the decision. According to The Verge, Huang was also reportedly targeted by China’s Ministry of State Security in an espionage operation. Shortly before the announcement, the Justice Department had also announced a crackdown on what it called a “major China-linked technology smuggling network”.
Democratic Senator Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts said the decision “sells out American national security” and that China’s access to the chips “poses a serious threat to our technological leadership and our national security”. She wants Huang and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick to testify before Congress, and she supports bipartisan legislation to constrain the administration.
“Why did the president make this bad deal that sells out the American economy and American national security? It’s simple: under the Trump administration, money talks.”
Elizabeth Warren, Democratic Senator from Massachusetts
Warren points to Huang’s attendance at a dinner costing $1 million per seat at Mar-a-Lago, as well as Nvidia’s donations to the future White House ballroom. She argues that Huang “understands that under this administration, being able to get close to Donald Trump may be the most important skill a company CEO can have”. These are political allegations, with no legal link to the license established.
The criticism extends across party lines. In a meeting with Republican senators, Senator John Kennedy described Huang as not an “objective, credible source” on whether chips should be sold to China, and skipped the meeting because he believed Huang sought sales for financial gain. Senator Mike Rounds called the discussion “healthy”. Republican Senator Pete Ricketts said that “denying Beijing access to these AI chips is essential to our national security”, and joined Democrat Chris Coons on the Safe Chips Act.
Nvidia welcomed the decision, saying it lets the American chip industry compete and supports well-paid jobs. A spokesperson added that the authorized sales would represent at most a smaller share of the Hopper and Blackwell computing power already sold to American customers. He also argued that halting H20 shipments cost America billions while foreign AI chipmakers filled the gap. AMD said the decision “strengthens American competitiveness” and supports domestic investment in semiconductors. Intel declined to comment. In an interview with Yahoo Finance, Huang summed up his stance: “Just as the American dollar is the world standard that economies are built on, we want the American tech stack for the world’s technology and industries to be built on, and that includes China.”
What the Council on Foreign Relations Sees
According to Michael C. Horowitz, Chris McGuire and Zongyuan Zoe Liu of the Council on Foreign Relations, the decision reflects a more accommodating geopolitical approach toward Beijing. It short-term facilitates Chinese competition, supports frontier models and the expansion of Chinese data centers, and could widen the geopolitical gap between the two powers.
The security logic sits at the heart of the debate. Since 2022, US policy has aimed to keep as large a lead as possible in advanced chips. Some US military officials believe Xi Jinping is building the capacity to invade Taiwan by 2027, though his intentions remain uncertain, and research suggests the Chinese military is seeking Nvidia chips for military AI applications. Analysts also stress that China’s domestic chip production remains constrained, which makes access to American chips especially sensitive.
The CFR also notes that Beijing could reject a unilateral concession and demand access to Blackwell chips, a request Washington has not accepted so far. An H200 agreement alone may therefore not be enough to stabilize the commercial relationship.
Outlook and Scenarios
Markets responded with restraint. Nvidia shares rose almost 3% after hours, minutes after the announcement. The company, now the most valuable listed company in the United States, has a market capitalization of about $4.5 trillion. It says it holds more than $500 billion in orders for its top AI chips to be delivered in 2025 and 2026, before any Chinese contribution. In July, it estimated that strict restrictions would cost it an additional $5.5 billion.
Three scenarios stand out. In the first, Beijing refuses imports, sales stay at zero, and the agreement remains largely symbolic. In the second, China accepts limited volumes, which would open meaningful revenue for Nvidia, AMD and Intel, subject to licenses. In the third, Congress passes binding legislation such as the Safe Chips Act, narrowing the executive’s room for maneuver. The New Matrix case alone could push regulators toward stricter buyer verification.
Sources
- The New York Times investigation on New Matrix, relayed by The Verge
- Donald Trump, Truth Social announcement, December 8, 2025
- Council on Foreign Relations, analyses by Michael C. Horowitz, Chris McGuire and Zongyuan Zoe Liu
- Yahoo Finance, interview with Jensen Huang
Cet article est publié à titre informatif et éducatif. Il ne constitue en aucun cas un conseil en investissement. Faites vos propres recherches (DYOR) avant toute décision.
