As the 2026 U.S. midterm elections approach, Bitcoin could be approaching another major historical turning point. Following the 2014, 2018 and 2022 midterms, Bitcoin gained an average of 53.7% over the following 12 months, with returns of 24.1%, 43.4% and 92%, respectively. The initial post-election period was volatile: Bitcoin fell 27.5% after 2014 and 46.5% after 2018, before rising 22.6% after 2022. Trading around $78,000 ahead of the November 3 vote, Bitcoin could enter an early recovery phase if the June low near $57,803 holds. Crypto regulation, government spending, tariffs, the dollar, Treasury yields and Federal Reserve policy could also shape its performance.
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