On Polymarket, the probability of an AI bubble bursting before December 31, 2026, rose from 6% to 11% as of October 20, 2026. The contract has recorded between $2 million and $3 million in cumulative trading volume, most of it tied to that deadline. For the outcome to resolve yes, at least three severe conditions must occur within the same 90-day window, including a 50% fall in Nvidia’s share price from its all-time high or a 40% decline in the SOXX semiconductor ETF. The increase followed warnings from Citadel’s Ken Griffin, who said AI is almost certainly in a bubble because of massive infrastructure spending. Although optimism still dominates, the near doubling of the implied probability shows growing concern about AI valuations.
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