According to a study by Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh published by Brookings, US investment in AI infrastructure could reach $10.3 trillion between 2025 and 2032, equal to 3.63% of gross domestic product each year. To make these investments profitable at a 10% unlevered return, the sector would need to generate approximately $3.725 trillion in revenue in 2032, equivalent to 9% of projected US GDP. OpenAI and Anthropic currently generate about $100 billion in combined revenue, requiring sustained annual growth of nearly 80% through 2032. This expansion, which would add roughly 183 gigawatts of computing capacity, relies heavily on off-balance-sheet financing and increases pressure on the power grid and regulators.
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