Matt Hougan, chief investment officer at Bitwise, argues that Bitcoin benefits across nearly every macro scenario tied to artificial intelligence. If AI delivers superabundance, genuinely scarce assets like Bitcoin benefit as value migrates to things that cannot be reproduced. In an AI bust scenario triggering a 2008-style recession, he predicts a near-certain government bailout with massive money-printing, calling it exactly the environment Bitcoin was built for, with odds at nearly 100%. Even in a muddle-through scenario with modest growth, Bitcoin continues attracting ETF flows and institutional allocations as government debt rises. Hougan acknowledges risks including a potential 50% COVID-style crash, government crackdown, or quantum computing threats, but concludes that for long-term investors, macro questions matter less than most people think.
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