On October 6, David Lisnard was worth 13.3 cents on Polymarket, corresponding to roughly a 13 % chance of winning, placing him third behind Marine Le Pen and Edouard Philippe, while Ifop polls measured him at only 3.5 % voter intentions. The Journal du Dimanche analyzed over 10,000 transactions: just $12,400 in net purchases were enough to nearly triple his odds in one week, with 97 accounts participating, five of which covered 68 % of the total. No conclusive evidence of manipulation was found, but the data show that a few thousand dollars can cause a candidate’s odds to soar on a thinly-traded bet. The serious money, however, is betting against him: the largest bettor has committed $430,000 to his defeat.
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