Credit ratings agency Scope Ratings maintained the U.S. sovereign score at AA- while highlighting the country’s growing vulnerability to bond market fluctuations. The 10-year Treasury yield has reached 5.27%, significantly exceeding the Congressional Budget Office’s forecasts of 4.3% to 4.4%. The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget estimated that yields remaining 1 percentage point above CBO projections would add approximately $3.5 trillion to the debt over the next decade. Without substantial fiscal adjustment, the general government debt burden is projected to approach 160% of GDP by 2036, with interest costs reaching a record $1.1 trillion, representing 3.4% of GDP. Scope expects the current debt ceiling of $41.1 trillion to be reached by early 2027, with the post-election political landscape increasing the risk of prolonged partisan standoffs.
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