United Russia is projected to win over 75% of the State Duma seats in Russia’s parliamentary elections, according to recent estimates. This anticipated victory comes amid the ongoing conflict with Ukraine and a tightly controlled political environment. Market data shows nearly 0% probability of United Russia finishing second. The Communist Party of the Russian Federation may secure third place due to fragmentation among opposition groups. The likelihood of United Russia winning fewer than 280 seats has significantly decreased, reflecting market expectations of their robust performance.
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