NATO announced it is fully prepared to respond to any Russian military escalation along its eastern flank. This declaration comes amid persistent tensions between Russia and Alliance member countries, particularly Poland, Romania, and the Baltic states. The current security situation represents an intensified peacetime crisis, marked by airspace violations and increased military preparedness on both sides. Markets are now pricing in a 30% probability of a military clash between NATO and Russia by the end of 2026, and a 16% probability by October 2026.
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