President Trump stated that the war with Iran is nearing a critical point, requiring a decision on whether to resume large-scale military operations. The tensions, which began earlier this year with U.S.-led strikes against Iran, have escalated through Iranian retaliatory attacks and U.S. operations targeting strategic sites around the Strait of Hormuz. Markets are interpreting Trump’s remarks as increasing the likelihood of more extensive military engagement. Prediction market odds for a potential U.S. invasion of Iran have risen, reflecting heightened risk perceptions. The probability of a U.S. invasion before the end of 2026 has increased slightly.
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