The International Energy Agency has cut its Russian oil production forecasts for 2026 and 2027, citing Ukrainian drone strikes targeting Russia’s energy infrastructure. Russian output fell to 8.36 million barrels per day in August 2026, down 695,000 barrels from the same period last year, reaching levels not seen in approximately 17 years. The 2026 forecast was reduced by 125,000 barrels per day to 8.7 million, and the 2027 forecast was slashed by 235,000 barrels per day to 8.6 million. Current production sits approximately 900,000 barrels per day below the OPEC+ quota. Western sanctions are complicating repairs to damaged facilities by cutting off access to most global industrial suppliers.
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