Iran has announced plans to establish a new exclusion zone in the Gulf, escalating tensions with the United States through threats of economic warfare. This decision is part of a strategy to leverage its geographic position against adversaries. It threatens maritime commerce and increases risks for US naval operations and commercial shipping in the Gulf. This escalation occurs against a backdrop of a fragile ceasefire between the two countries. Prediction markets reflect a declining probability of a US-Iran deal in 2026.
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