Russell Hardy, CEO of Vitol, the world’s largest independent oil trader, is warning about a collapse in China’s crude imports, which have fallen from a record 11.6 million bpd at the end of 2025 to approximately 6.07 million bpd in May-June 2026, a gap of over 5 million bpd. This drop is driven by a combination of geopolitical disruptions in the Middle East, particularly involving Iran and the Strait of Hormuz, combined with a strategic decision by Beijing to draw down its reserves. Chinese refiners are currently depleting commercial and strategic petroleum stockpiles at a rate exceeding 1 million bpd, a situation Hardy describes as unsustainable. Projections anticipate a potential rebound in Chinese imports above 13 million bpd by the end of 2026, which would create a compression effect on the global market.
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