President Donald Trump has indicated a potential intensification of the United States’ military response to Iran, as tensions between the two countries continue to escalate in the Gulf region. This escalation follows a series of retaliatory attacks, including U.S. strikes on Iranian targets followed by Iranian missile fire targeting U.S. bases. This situation marks a significant shift from ceasefire attempts toward more direct military confrontation, also involving regional players like Israel and various Gulf states. Markets currently assign a 15.5% probability to a U.S. invasion of Iran before 2027, reflecting major concerns about a prolonged conflict.
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