The VIX futures curve is steepening sharply ahead of the November midterm elections, with September contracts at roughly 17.4 climbing to 19.7 by November. Implied volatility on November 2026 S&P 500 options has surged from 13.1% in January to 19.6% by June, representing a 50% increase in portfolio protection costs. Since 1945, realized volatility has exceeded the prior year’s level in 80% of midterm cycles, with an average increase of 3.5 volatility points. Cboe has introduced new daily S&P 500 options expiring on November 3, 2026, with implied pricing suggesting a roughly 1.4% single-day move following the vote, representing hundreds of billions of dollars shifting hands in a single session.
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