Iran has increased its missile and drone production while restoring underground military facilities, according to a report from the Jerusalem Post. This development comes as the window for U.S.-Iran negotiations closes, with both sides seemingly preparing for renewed conflict. Market pricing suggests the likelihood of a final nuclear deal by the August 18 deadline has decreased significantly, with odds remaining below 3% for a deal by the end of September. Probability for a deal by the end of October is priced at 5.5% YES, while the December 31 deadline holds a slightly higher 15.5% YES. This pricing reflects escalating tensions and limited optimism for a near-term diplomatic solution.
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